When we released our first global insolvency forecast in February, we were already expecting a sharp increase in 2024 (+9%), followed by a stabilization in 2025. However, recent developments have led to an even grimmer picture, with a projected increase of +11% for this year (+2pps from the previous forecast), followed by a peak of +2% in 2025 (+2pps from the previous forecast). The number of business failures will thus stabilize only in 2026, and even then, they will remain at a high level.
We expect bankruptcies in the US to increase +12% in 2025 and decrease -4% in 2026. In Germany, they will increase by +4% and decrease by -4% in 2026. In France and the UK, the number of bankruptcies will decrease slightly after…
