Kalshi is gambling because you risk money in the hope of winning more money. When you factor in fees and taxes, you are expected to lose money in the long run.
This dynamic is similar to casino games such as sports betting, blackjack, and slot machines, where prolonged participation usually results in losses over time. This is part of the product structure.
Factoring in Kalshi’s fees, the average return across all contracts is negative 22%, according to a paper published in 2025 from researchers at University College Dublin. The research did not factor in taxes, which vary based on the jurisdiction you live in.
Why Kalshi is Different Than Stocks
Unlike the stock market, where you invest in a company that creates actual products or…