For the country to sustainably put its finances in good order, the recent fiscal consolidation should be viewed as part of a long-term structural change in how public finances are managed and not a temporary adjustment. That said, for the short to medium term – until robust confidence is gained in the authorities’ longer-term fiscal intentions – Romania is likely to still face rating pressures as credit assessors will probably maintain a “wait and see” approach in 2026. We see an upgrade as unlikely given the debt levels, and the primary goal is to avoid a downgrade to junk status. At this point, the investment‑grade anchor is held in place merely by the credibility of the deficit reduction path.
In essence, we believe that…